- Theme: What if… I had one month to spend 5ETH & couldn’t sell any NFTs I bought for 3 years?
- Affordable project: Avastars - Avastars - Collection | OpenSea
- NFT News
Transcript:
[00:00:00] Today on all about affordable and FTS, we're doing a little, what if game? What if you had five Ethereum, one month to buy NFTs and you had to hold them for at least three years. So you had to hold all three years for NFTs that you bought this month. It's just a fun thought experiment to see what we come up with.
[00:00:20] But first, Andrew, what are you seeing?
[00:00:22] Yeah. What do we see now here? Let's see. So we've got March madness just started as we're recording this and we've got all sorts of NFT drops around this. I've been surprised by the number of NFT drops here. And if NFTU was the first one that I heard about, and then there was a let's see, another one from draft Kings.
[00:00:43] But they've been quite popular. They both sold out the draft Kings one. It was a draft Kings. I believe it was their first direct and NFT collection that they, they had. Created before they had just hosted them on their own marketplace. That was 12,000 pieces. The an NFTU from recur was let's see almost nearly 18,000 and FTS there they've been popular and selling on secondary as well.
[00:01:08] So I'm surprised that it has been as popular to is took me by surprise here. Anyway. I expected a lot during the Superbowl. Didn't really think about how much it may come into play with the NCAA tournament here. And I think. It's interesting for a couple of reasons that this will have exposure for a whole month here, essentially as the tournament spans multiple weeks.
[00:01:30] And the other part is that we have the, we do have, the players could potentially start using NFTs as a way to. To cash in on their likeness, which has not been possible for the most part in NCAA history. It's interesting that those are coming at the same time. So watching that kind of closely over the next month to see how much, how much their exposure NFTs get during the during media publication of the events and how much the uh, uh, the market responds to to these NFTs.
[00:02:01] How much do you think is dapper labs? Again, the folks behind NBA top shot and also now the the new NFL all day behind any.
[00:02:09] No, I haven't heard their name as being directly tied to any of this, I don't know if there's. Who knows the reasons that maybe you would think they would be there, but I don't know if there's maybe an MBA issue with NCAA or I, that's a, that's outside of my knowledge, but I haven't seen their name come up in any of this NCAA NFT talk.
[00:02:28] Yeah, it says N F T U largest unified collegiate sports, digital collectible NFD marketplace. Okay. Not going to be on my buyers list, but I think it may help people jump onto it. And if you're able to bring in some of the sports audience, you've seen a lot of success from dapper. Good luck.
[00:02:44] Yeah, absolutely. It's not on my list either, but I am I am interested in the news of this or of these collections.
[00:02:50] Okay. We have the Pixar drop, so I love Pixar and we've heard Disney getting into the NFT world. So what is this Pixar NFT drop sells out on the.
[00:03:03] I never actually said that out loud. I think it's V the BV platform. So yeah, drop, they had a number of different, our picks picks our characters from their various movies available as NFTs, and it was popular. Not surprising that Disney has found their way to this and is using their IP. I think we've discussed this in the past when we heard some rumors of them getting into this, that they'd have amazing intellectual property rights to all of their characters, all their movies to.
[00:03:30] Using NFTs and they have started doing this already. And it it sold out quickly. I had seen news of it and was actually somewhat interested and it sold out before I had a chance to to be able to admit it. And I haven't looked at it closely since then, but it has, I know that they had a decent amount of volume and let's see, it was almost 55,000 pieces.
[00:03:51] Yeah, total volumes 3.3 million. It starts type saying.
[00:03:55] It's an impressive amount and I'm sure we'll see a lot more from Disney as they are pretty good at this startup sort of thing.
[00:04:02] Yeah, I've heard they're decent at branding as far as yeah. Something to check out. Yeah, a lot. I don't know about that. Big players in there. And especially if they're doing it the right. way, we've seen also big players do it wrong, with I would say last year tops, I was like my biggest like heartbreak.
[00:04:17] So the question is it a money grab or is it a brand building established play? So we'll wait And see there, but Hey, maybe it ends up on the affordable list. Probably not at those prices. Okay.
[00:04:29] lastly, we've got a report here and just to report and a lot of people have talked about how NFTs are. Inversely related to crypto prices. We've talked about it a bit. When crypto prices don't do well and FTE prices tend to do better. And the thought is that you're spending less us dollars for the same NFTE.
[00:04:49] Doesn't seem to hold as true as the prices also do well during a NFE bull runs for the most part. And there's some news or report from Nansen a an FTE analytics company that has that they put some numbers behind this. So there's a very negative correlation between the two. So it's a interesting report here to jump a chance to dig into this George.
[00:05:11] So it was interesting when they're building up this NFT 500 similar to an S and P 500 or the blue chip index. So they're putting this index and pairing it against saying, how does this perform against prices? When Eve goes down, how does this index go up? Because it's hard to say NFTs as a whole.
[00:05:28] So they're basketing this top group and showing how it shows strength. When in fact may maybe going down. It is giving me hope that during a, down a down cycle, which is where we are, I think Right. now that actually. Still makes sense to be shopping for or potential NFTs are the keep in mind, the historical window that we get to look at something like this is remarkably short, especially hilariously comparing it with something like the S and P, which is, standard and Poor's history of the stock market, as opposed to history of when we were putting digital images on the internet.
[00:06:03] Yeah, but the history, and I think there's a few more regulations involved with going public and trading on the sec regulated market versus minting a new collection and being one of the top 500 at this point. Doesn't exactly sound Bluechip. I think that may need to. They need to be reduced somewhat.
[00:06:22] I didn't read that it was 500. I did read they're basketing these in different indexes. I think it is. I think as we see the market mature, we will see different index products, even if they're just for tracking and tracking the health of the market. And we'll see them come together that look at NFPS in more nuanced categories, such as maybe 3d worlds or PFP projects and get a little bit more nuanced than just saying these are the top 500, I think for awhile, we probably should be hesitant to say that there's really 500 quality and FTE projects out there.
[00:06:54] Yeah, that's fair. All right. Should we move into our affordable.
[00:06:57] Yeah, here we go. What do you got for us today, George? You get another one?
[00:07:02] I look, I fell bad again. I apologize already last episode.
[00:07:07] for last week, I felt like I didn't bring the as awesome as I could have. And here it is, this is the killer one. So this is looking at a project called add a star Ava stars. And it's our creator is someone like Jimmy dot E I believe it is, but at a very well-known collector, throwing back to it was established in February of 2020, and it is all on chain generative characters.
[00:07:34] And it was, I would say second to auto glyphs for full on chain art, according to my rough NFT history, and also a sort of collective agreed history of this. Along that same time was also chain faces a project that we called out a little while back, but avatars is all on chain. These images that are, they look like a profile pic and they have various designs and formats and layouts.
[00:08:03] And currently I will say the floor of this is that 0.1, one, five, which I think is remarkably low for a project like this. I will say that. The project also now has the ability to mint replicas. So when you go in, make sure that you're looking at and finding originals, and as best I can tell you can find that in the in the filters of course, but the replicas.
[00:08:30] the wave attribute I believe is what you're looking for. There. A prime and replicant.
[00:08:35] there it is. Yeah. So the primes are 25. Thank you, Andrew. There are 25,000 primes and only 326 replicants. And again, the ability to recreate new ones so that you can merge and mix traits is paired. As long as you buy an art token, art tokens are currently around 50 bucks. So I think there's one. Interesting history here. And it's just, I feel like it's just getting overlooked because of all of the new hotness running around. Andrew, what do you see on this project? You actually, you're old enough to have actually mentored this back in the day.
[00:09:10] So I had one yet, so they've got different series of these. And I had one, I believe, or I had a couple from one of the later series. I didn't have one from the earliest series. As I look at these now looking the gen zero series, there's only 200 of those. Those are the hefty floor price of 19.5 E whereas all the others are much more reasonable.
[00:09:32] The the gen one or the series ones looks like they start at a 0.1, two, five. So I think it would be interesting to look, know, if we're looking at some of the historic value, I think it'd be just going to look at the release dates of those. I am sure the is that again, zeroes are actually the oldest pulling up.
[00:09:50] One now. So the gen ones was still like this pier was actually. To Jimmy, the creator on May 12th, 2020. So that's actually pretty interesting that is sitting at the floor right now of the gen ones. That's a pretty old piece and has some historic value. Also consider when looking at this as just the various rarities of the attributes.
[00:10:13] When I, so when I invented one of these, there were how it worked was you could create your character using picking various hair attributes or skin. No, Tats different things like this, but then at different times they would take a selection of the of these different choices away. Throughout the minting, they would reduce the numbers.
[00:10:36] So some of these become more rare both by the fact that they aren't available at a certain point and some are chosen by the people that do them. So it's worth looking at those, I think. Cool project still. It's a relatively, somewhat large collection at 25,000, but I certainly wouldn't say that is a reason not to to look at it.
[00:10:55] We've seen very large collections go achieve quite high for prices. Not a reason to stay away. Definitely interesting project here. And I think it's a good reminder to look at this one. I, I've realized I actually do hold one of these in my wallet right now, as I look at this I had one yeah, I had sold some, but I do have one in there.
[00:11:13] I may look at, they look to pick another up here, George.
[00:11:16] So here's how you can tell us a good project. I brought this to the table and I think, I may have convinced you to go buy another one.
[00:11:23] Absolutely. I
[00:11:24] good project. Yes,
[00:11:26] really interested when you
[00:11:27] also full disclosure. I may have just bought a man bun, a gen one, man bun.
[00:11:32] did you do it as live on air as we're
[00:11:35] I did it live on air gen one minute. Gas was too low for meeting with.
[00:11:38] Ignore it. And also it's man been only 1%, 1% of man bonds. So there you go. Full disclosure.
[00:11:45] I'll let you know listeners, when he matches his avatar. I assume he's going that way soon.
[00:11:51] I don't think I can do it. But this is, so this is exactly. If we're going to tie into the theme here on the smooth transition, what would you buy right now? If you had five E and couldn't sell anything for three years, right? Those two things are unique. One of the guardrails here is five eight. Yes.
[00:12:10] This is well beyond our normal affordable project. But the guard rail there is saying like, all right, you're going to put a sizable bet. Would you buy all into one thing or would you spread it out? And then if you have the mindset of holding for three years, what does the market look like?
[00:12:24] And in some ways it takes the. This FOMO, panic of oh my gosh, this thing just ripped and dumped. I got to get in on it. Do you really think it's going to last three years from now? And it just puts a different lens on it. So I will kick off our debates saying, I, I brought out a Starz because it is an old stablish collection, at the prices run up way, way back in the day, but know.
[00:12:46] It's been mostly drama, but I think when a larger community looks at the historical context of NFTs, this has a place in it.
[00:12:52] Yeah, I agree. I think this holds a place. I think it also has a respected creator. Very likely to stick around the industry and not not be out of the picture in three years. I think that's an important thing. We've talked about this recently and our, just our most recent episode about the role of the creator in establishing value.
[00:13:11] And you've really got to start thinking. Who are the creators that will stick with this, with the teams that will grow and continue to work on their projects for three years. And that's not easy to say at this point, because most of these projects are well under a year old avatars. We've got something different here that is, we're actually looking at something that's two years old here.
[00:13:31] And, I know that's not a lot, but it's a lot more than what most teams have at this point.
[00:13:35] Yeah. So in my basket, I would say I would be looking for projects. That are like this. And I don't have, like this full list, but I want something that was minted in 2020 or 2019. And maybe I would shop, I would put say or two weeks toward just shopping on like a looks rare or something like that to be like, All right. Let me find artists that have a cohesive collection that have been doing the work and trying to pick up. Varieties of art. Obviously you're not buying the next copy, but that's not to say you can't find some glitch art potentially in some early works like that. So I would consider pieces like that, that just have art with the capital, a types of appeal and an age to them because I get nervous.
[00:14:23] I would get nervous. If anything, if I'm buying and holding for three years, I get nervous of anything that was like minted with. Hysteria where like the last four or five months I think it's just a different atmosphere. And if I'm going to hold something through three months, I better know that.
[00:14:37] Like for instance, that the other episode I talked about calling up human park and I know that the virtual human studios is behind Zed run and they're funded and that that's a studio that's going to be around for awhile. that's interesting. Although I wouldn't throw out there. So what, w where would you throw a bucket of your five five-year magical investment?
[00:14:55] All right. Yeah. So I think this is a, it's an initially question, what's going to stick around we've talked about. One project that I, that is historic in the past and we've mentioned it. And I think Boone cats is one that I would still put some in. And I think there are some concerns about how active they'll be.
[00:15:11] But I also think that, if assuming things continue to. That the NFD marketplace continues to be active, that the team will be around that they do have plans to be on Coinbase. And I think that is good that the team will be around that long. And that it's a historic project. Going back to 2017 I don't have to look at the floor price of that recently, but I believe that's around half an ear.
[00:15:33] Could do that well on, and still have a lot to play with and get some historic value there. I like the avatars play as a another I don't know, maybe one of the earliest PFPs that isn't, isn't punks and certainly had a lot. Customizability than almost any project that we still see now.
[00:15:51] So I liked that play a lot there. Again, I think the historic value is I don't know, it's important to look at, and, but we also need to start thinking like, are there teams now that are going to be supplanting these more historic teams, as we've seen with UGA versus larva and I think that's a, that's a tougher question.
[00:16:08] To answer right off the bat. What's your thought on that, George?
[00:16:12] I think. Looking at a scan. If I just scan what is on the top crypto slam top traded top volume. I take a look at that and I'm like here's a perfect list of exactly what I would not be throwing money at right now, because one it's just not affordable. With, if we're talking about an ape or a immediate, like maybe you could grab a meet at four for that right now, but I absolutely would not do that.
[00:16:34] Because again, when I put that guard rail of five feet, I wouldn't want to put it all in one big purchase and then hold it for three years. I'd much rather see it spread across a few bets one or two of which could go to a larger return and spread out.
[00:16:50] And then, remember the conversations about reputation and what might happen there. I've seen. Other works, I think I'd want, I want to get into some generative pieces. And I know you're the expert really on, on a lot of those those generated pieces, but, I know we're both collectors of pod Gans.
[00:17:08] And I think some of those are interesting and I I would want to dig in to say like, all right, what's the generative plan. I can't afford a squiggle. I know you got squigglies for days. But what is the the affordable play of it's clear that in this moment of time, right?
[00:17:21] Three years from now in this moment of time. Oh my gosh. People went absolutely nuts for generative artwork. So how do you fill out part of that in important?
[00:17:31] That's a good question. I was thinking about that and it's, like you said, I do have some squiggles and I look at that as a somewhat being a safe Safe play in generative art. Yes. Expensive. But I I. Tended to go there because it wasn't quite as susceptible to the, how the market is reacting.
[00:17:48] It was the first art blocks project that really led the way for a lot of these. And, again, I looked at the historic value there. So I think it's, trying to look at some of that, what has changed things, pod Gans, I don't know if it definitely changed things, but it certainly was the, it helped establish that new.
[00:18:02] That new platform for AI generated art, China. So I think trying to look at look at the pieces or look at artists that have been transformative. We've talked about a an affordable project from Dimitri cherniak in the past, I think in general, trying to look at some of those artists.
[00:18:20] Like Casey Reyes who's another, just very influential generative artist who maybe is somewhat overlooked in NFTs at this point. That could be an interesting one that I know that he has some pieces out there that are fairly affordable at this point. And. I don't know, certainly seems like he's interested in sticking around, has done a number of projects and is working on a lot of new projects with art blocks and bright moments teams that I've worked with a bit.
[00:18:44] Some other artists that I tend to think of Tyler Hobbs. I would just keep an eye out for things that he's connected to. He does a lot with the feral file. I'm sorry. That's I, you know what I have that mixed up that is Casey Rio's that does something with federal file, I believe. I think that's an interesting platform to look at as something that's been somewhat overlooked but does generative art.
[00:19:05] And another thing that we've talked about in the past is looking at non theory based NFTs. And I think. The worth putting some into a platform like Tezos we haven't gone into it a lot. There are certainly plenty of different platforms to go and do, but Tezos is one of the earlier ones and there has been a lot of generative art there.
[00:19:26] A lot of just art in general, I would say. I think so that's a, it's a tough one to filter through. We've started to look at it a bit and it's a little overwhelming. I have some pieces there from when it was a lot newer and there was a lot less there. It was a lot easier to just navigate that world.
[00:19:41] I haven't spent a lot of time that recently, but I think it may be interesting because there's a chance that there's. Some other, some additional historic value added to those pieces. I don't know enough of about other chains at this point. Such as avalanche or over. Phantom any those too, to know what the NFT world is really like there.
[00:20:01] I would stay in with Ethereum for the most part, but perhaps put a little bit into other chains to just play that potential that they end up, that those chains just end up being popular in the end.
[00:20:11] Yeah. If we're talking on Teslas, the only one that caught my eye, I did a little bit of a dive on object.com. That's O B J. A t.com, which is like the open sea, for for the Tezos and market is Tizzard's, which seems to be. Randomly generated little lizard Tizard things. And it seems to be the G project as far as that can go on that platform.
[00:20:34] So that might be my play there. I'll do more digging to decide if it's like affordable makes sense for a project to feature. But I would throw a dart at that maybe and part of that portfolio, because again, if it's been around this long, it holds a place it's ridiculous for its own. It could have value again in three years. Cause what we're doing is walking this in a box and not touching it for three years, which just forces you to think a little bit differently about it. Notably absent. I was thinking about this notably absent from my basket would be game NFTs, simply because with games I'm very bullish this year on that, but they take so much careful monitoring. And management that I wouldn't necessarily trust that it would make sense to hold it for three years, as opposed to have some sort of unique opportunity to do something weird with it. Flip it, breed it, whatever it, and so I, we get nervous putting games in, into this basket that said this is a bit of a cheat, but I have been thinking about how important. How important. I think that dapper labs is going to be in the next three years of onboarding people and specifically their flow token, I think gets overlooked. Now it's not an NFT play, I'm thinking about how. It is a backdoor into saying like, all right, I'm not gonna collect NBA top shot or the, maybe NFL, I'll take a look at it, but it could be a backdoor at the same.
[00:21:55] How do I make a bet on that platform as a whole? I'm an NFT way looking at flow token, but That's a little bit of a cheat.
[00:22:03] yeah, that might be a little bit G I wouldn't actually rule out as an MBA top shot. I don't have much, but I do have some, a couple from season one. And again, somewhat of a historic thing helped usher in a lot of people to NFTs and. Debra labs going away anytime soon. I don't think, I don't know what the price is.
[00:22:21] There are a lot of like right now, I'm sure there are values to be had with certain players, certainly that you could put some towards that with the five, eight under the five eith allocation. And feel like he's still got a lot to play with otherwise, but I think that might be interesting again.
[00:22:36] To get out of necessarily just going with Ethereum based NFTs. And I think that is a question that we'd have, that you really have to look at when you're saying buy and hold for three years. What do you think of the chain that it's on is that network going to continue to hold value or to rise in value and are the pieces that are minted on it, going to hold that value or, are they gonna be valued in.
[00:22:56] USD. And, if the Arrium, I shouldn't mention the report that we talked about earlier was talking about a theory based NFTs and they made that very specific. They didn't, they're saying that. The value of the NFTs that are held in a theory, them were held a value better than crypto tokens over that time period that they looked at.
[00:23:16] So it's, it is interesting that you've got to take into account the value of the tokens that the the NFT is actually transacted in. And we've talked about that a bit in the past. I think, when you're thinking about this, how much are you taking that into account? Do you think of Ethereum is going to continue to hold that.
[00:23:31] I think if I'm putting out all of the horses in the race, absolutely. This year, we're going to see the improvements to proof of stake over proof of work in the merge and Ethereum as a platform, if you look at it with regards to a PE ratio, it's actually being used, burned and utilized a lot more than any other token.
[00:23:53] And in our current drop a lot of tokens have taken a haircut. Eve is still, hanging in into the mid, 2,500 to 3000 range. And it's still, half off, a high, as opposed to 90% off of a high, it is a strong platform to, to bet on all ready on a risky asset.
[00:24:10] And yeah, I think that is why we've brought up that.
[00:24:12] article and I like this basket, I think this basket would potentially do. It's risky. And we're talking about, buying images and find images on the internet. But I think having that lens, especially during right now and during recession shopping, we're where things are down to have that mindset of like, all right, there are, there is value out here and there's not a lot of customers running around, buying up stuff. Where's that value instead of. Trying to contemplate whether or not you should, ape into Abe token, which I have already warned, I believe will go down because of money versus go and find a project it's just straight up overlooked, but has long-term potential value.
[00:24:48] Yeah, I like that play. I think going small, with a lot of these different projects is the way to go here. It's really difficult to pick one that is definitely going to work out in three years, especially at that five eighth level. I think, at any level, I should say I don't think that I could say with a hundred percent, or I can't say with a hundred percent certain that any of these will be around in three years.
[00:25:09] So it's better to take a number of risks here and try multiple things. And I think there's a lot of value to be had in the market right now, if you can sift through things and come up with the projects that are being overlooked, it's not necessarily the easiest thing, but I think we've had a few good ideas here.
[00:25:24] And I think that they can also, by looking at some of these. It's leads you to others. If you start looking at things that are admitted at a certain time, you can start finding other wallets. It may have been active at that time and what else it may have been doing. It takes some digging, but I think, if you had a month to do it, and this is the way that I would start going about it.
[00:25:40] All right. I say we wrap it on there. It was a fun. What if keep it in the back of your mind? What if you had to hold whatever you were buying for three years and it.
[00:25:46] may change how you are making that next purchase. Andrew, thanks so much for the advice and thoughts on.
[00:25:53] All right. Good talking, George.