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Theme: The Floor is Lava 

Don’t trust floors in low volume periods.





[00:00:00] Today on all about affordable NFTs, the floor is a lava. Why we gotta be a little suspicious of low volume floors when we see 'em all right, Andrew, what do you see in the news? Yeah. So we've got, uh, you may have heard some things recently going on with three arrows capital, one of the big hedge funds. I think we talked about them, but they have an, an NFD collection that they have put together under the name of the collector, uh, going the, the group going a starry night.

[00:00:30] Um, so you've seen recently, or some people have noticed that all of their. NFTs have been moved to just a single wallet now? Um, not much, uh, not much news beyond that, but it does look a little, uh, looks a little odd, um, from where they had these all in many wallets before and now they are face potentially facing some insolvency issues.

[00:00:52] So could see where they may need to be selling their NFTs at some. Uh, what. Would presumably create a discounted price, um, to what they paid for. So keep an eye on that. I think that is interesting. They have, it's a, it's an impressive collection. Um, yeah. What kind of, what kind of stuff are they long on? Uh, so they've, I mean, they've got some, some, uh, some max copies in there.

[00:01:14] They've got some, uh, DK motions, some, um, some other, I mean, I, I, I haven't looked at the entire thing, uh, specifically, but I know it's a, I've noticed them put some. Or make some big, big, uh, buys, uh, the past six months or so I think they've also got some, um, Some high end art blogs pieces in there. So I'm sure there's gonna be people watching what happens with this because, uh, you know, like I said, it's, it's a pretty impressive collection.

[00:01:40] And if, if someone, if someone's going to, if someone is forced to liquidate, I'm sure there's going to be, uh, buyers at a, a certain price, you know, but it will be a big discount, I would think. Yeah. That's an interesting one. Not affordable, but interesting. Yeah. Not affordable at all.

[00:01:56] Let's see we've got so Nason is a, uh, an analytics platform, uh, does a lot, um, with the NFT space and they are launching Manson connect as a, I mean, they're saying to rival discord, but as a communication hub for NFT communities. Um, so we have talked about the need for. For other alternatives, uh, to disor and it looks like, um, N has launched one here.

[00:02:24] And, you know, I'm curious to see where this goes. Yeah. Um, I don't know much about it, but, um, you know, more web two in it. And let's see, we've got another NFT marketplace launching. This one is called ACAP archipelago. I always have a hard time saying that word, but it is, um, backed by, uh, the artist Tyler Hobbs.

[00:02:45] He's the art artist behind, um, Denzo the Denzo collection. So this will be a generative art specific marketplace. Um, A lot of art blocks, but also other generative art on there. So, you know, we've talked about how, uh, these new marketplaces are popping up and specializing in specific, uh, areas of the NFT space.

[00:03:05] And, uh, you know, that's what we're seeing here with this one. Hmm.

[00:03:08] You know, I just like how many, how many marketplaces for generative art can the market sustain and, and support? I think it's really just about. What artists can you get in there? And I, I think it's hard for a new platform like that. Maybe to be a resource for launching new ones, as opposed to giving maybe the opportunity to find existing artists that have like collections and like you might be able to snipe some interesting opportunities that way.

[00:03:37] Yeah. So I think this is a, you know, more of like a, this third part, you know, a, a marketplace where you can buy and sell generative art pieces, not necessarily launching new art collections from here, but, uh, just like an open sea for generative art specifically. Um, so I assume that they will have more features that are, uh, you know, specific two generative art, specifically some of the, the traits and filters.

[00:04:00] Aren't great on open sea for some of these collections. And I imagine that some of that will, uh, you know, they'll, they'll build. Things to work specifically for generative arts, um, you know, with Tyler Hobbs name, I'm sure that it will get some attention from, from collectors in that space. We tended to say this thought for a future episode, but I get the sense that like we're like reaching a peak for generative art.

[00:04:24] I think there's a certain point at which the bloom is off the roads and it's no longer novel. Just the medium of it. It'll be really much more about how you're actually using it. Especially as I look at the advancements that are about to just roll on with D two. Uh, G P T three open AI extension of, uh, generative images that can be done by like, just text alone.

[00:04:50] It'll no longer be like, oh, how cool you cobble together? These like, you know, uh, adversarial networks and like started with this like unique process. It's gonna be somebody writing a couple sentences and shit. And now, yeah, we got Agans are different than generative. Um, in the way that I, you know, generative art in the space is generally looked at as like, this is the code that produces this output rather than here's a bunch of images that we feed to make a new image.

[00:05:17] Um, so I see those as being, as being different. Um, yeah, we are definitely seeing some, those Dolly two images are some interesting stuff coming out there. This is a, this would cut me by surprise. Saw this headline today. Solana is launching a smartphone. Um, so this will be a, as far as I know, the first web three native smartphone.

[00:05:38] Will have features more built in natively to the OS. Um, so that you're not necessarily, I mean, I think if you, any of us have, have used meta mask on, on your phone or tried to do much on the phone, you realize that you're kind of jumping around from, from different app to app to get things, to work and assign the transactions.

[00:05:58] It's not ideal. Um, so I think. There is, there's some opportunity here to improve that. Um, I'm not entirely clear how this is going to work with work for Solana at this point, but, you know, I it's, I imagine that we'll get some, you know, this will have payment features so that you can pay easily using crypto.

[00:06:18] Um, that's what I said in announcement, at least. Yeah. So it's interesting. We'll see what happens. I don't know. As a rule software companies don't fare. Well, when they just jump on into the old hardware world and assume that like, oh, you just can kind of roll that out. But, you know, um, I don't know if there's particular advantages that being native web three will, will have when it comes to mobile tech.

[00:06:47] Uh, I'm not optimistic about it, but I am interested in, in what they find out. It feels to me more of. A well functioning application on an existing phone than a phone phone, but, Hmm. I mean, as long as you're fine with your call getting dropped, I don't know, for seven hours at a time because you can't keep the network up.

[00:07:07] I'm good. I'm good with that. Oh boy. Oh, oh. T-Mobile can we hear you? . All right. Well, what have we got for a affordable project here? We've we've we've got one. I feel like we, uh, you know, we didn't have the best, uh, we rehashed one last, uh, episode, so, well, I'm glad we've got something here, George, you brought one to us.

[00:07:26] What have you got? I have found the thing you say it first I'll pack a PAC cadavers, PAC. Deborahs all one word and it's, uh, an alpaca themed, uh, type of PFP will say, and I'm talking about, um, not their 3d collection, but their Genesis collection, current floor price. At 0.2, they have 9,700 items, roughly speaking half owners.

[00:07:55] So that's a pretty good mix of owner distribution. I'd say. And the, the team is, I hate saying this, but semi docs where they have a team, I can see, but they're, you know, Twitter profiles, they do list the team. There are a number, uh, of them, uh, working on this project at least 12. I see. They have. A bit of a classic run the play with regard to their roadmap, focusing on the metaverse, but they're doing it as sort of a play on other people's lands.

[00:08:29] So they've got a foot in NFT, worlds, sandbox, web land, other deed, arcade land, but more importantly, it seems like they're trying to build mini games inside of those ecosystems, including not limited to a mobile game they're planning and. I think it's affordable. I found it also on, um, uh, the, the, but it's actually had some, some interesting price movement recently.

[00:08:56] So I don't know if you're, you're also seeing that Andrew. Yeah. So I, this is one that I looked at a very long time ago. Um, and I remember that it had actually climbed up. I mean, looking here, like this is, this was up over half an eighth at one point. Um, Hannah's come back down, but yeah, we're seeing some, we're definitely seeing some action still here.

[00:09:16] It's actually, I see it at the end of, um, end of last year, looks like it was hitting at one point. Yeah. So this is really had a run. This has really come down, um, from there. And I dunno, we're also kinda seeing like this, this 0.2, um, floor looks like it's, you know, looks like it's holding fairly strong as a, as a floor.

[00:09:39] Um, you know, seeing some sales under that recently, but not a whole lot. Um, so, you know, I think that's something we've we. We've talked about, and you know, these, these, the collections that do persist with sales and that you do start to see like, well, this is really where the floor is. Um, you know, I think that's, that's good to get there, you know, not saying that it can't go lower, um, you know, famous less words.

[00:10:01] Right. You know, as soon as you, you buy in, it can go lower of course. But, um, but I think it is good if you see sales over time, you know, that are, you know, they get picked up when they do get much below there. Um, and I do like that. I mean, they do have a big team, like you said, it's semi doc. But I recognize a lot of the people that are here and it, you know, they, they are people that have been around the space for, you know, relatively considerable amount of time.

[00:10:23] Um, you know, considering the age of the NFT world. Yeah. I mean the gray boys was it the little NFT characters and they were like focusing on that. It's kind of like that play where you're just like, I I'm past trying to get up on sort of acquiring land, but acquiring the, the players. And the builders that will be trying to work across the land with across brand types of components.

[00:10:52] And these folks seem like they're developing stuff. I don't know, you know, not financial advice I'm talking about, you know, two D P F P Alpac is done with pixel art. So there's that full disclosure. I don't own any, but tend to get into. I get in my own head of being like, I'm gonna feel like a real dope if I don't buy the thing I talked about.

[00:11:13] So don't be surprised if you see mostly, most, mostly stable creep into the creep into the activity there. Yeah. Easier. I'm gonna float some bids. I'm gonna, I'm gonna float some bids, maybe, um, maybe I'll use genie. There you go. Yeah. I mean, uh, yeah, definitely worth floating bids. I think we've talked about that.

[00:11:34] You know, that's, it's a good play right now. I think you can get a lot of things, a lot of, uh, offers accepted and try out that new, uh, that new collection offer feature on open sea. That's that's pretty cool. I'm so glad you brought that up. Uh, because they, they bought it and they implemented it right away.

[00:11:49] So like, just to talk this through, there is now a collection make collection offer. So this means I'm literally just saying I'm willing to pay, you know, in case of this, I'll, I'll throw a dart at 1.5, a 0.15, sorry, 0.5. You're gonna wanna be careful. You put that 0.5 and I can put an expiration date. It looks like of one day, three day custom date.

[00:12:13] And now this means like anybody who wants to sell one of these Alpac Cadas. We'll see that and be able to say, okay. Um, so I, I'm not really getting to choose on trade. Am I you? Well, you can put a, you can select, if you want to do a specific attribute on most of the collections, I have noticed that the, uh, it's somewhat different on various collections.

[00:12:41] So I can put a collection note. Like I want a body of a standing, cuz I have no clue what the rarity. The rarity special, unique. I think they've got, you know, attributes in here.

[00:12:53] I am checking it out yet. I actually have not done. Yes, you with this, you cannot do any kind of, uh, offers on or any kind of attributes on the PAC Cadas it seems like it is on some collections and not on others, but so this, yeah, you'd be making a collection offer similar to how it's done and looks rare already where you can make an offer.

[00:13:13] Anybody that holds one could accept that. Um, but yeah, I think it's, I mean, I think that is a, well, I know it's a whole lot easier than trying to make offers on, you know, the, the five or so that are just among the floor. Um, so this is, it's a nice feature. Um, and I think it adds, I think you can add a lot of liquidity to projects, um, makes it much easier.

[00:13:34] Um, For these offers to even, to make the offers that people that maybe weren't so interested or, or didn't yeah. Didn't we say like 10% of offers are getting accepted these days. I think it's, I don't know about, yeah. I mean, I've seen some big numbers of like the percentage of sales right now. The number there in with have been has been it's been up there.

[00:13:54] So, uh, yeah, definitely try those wealth offers. If you are buying it into any of these projects, I think it's real smart. Yeah, I might put little fueler, little fueler, bet. Know what George is gonna be doing? George, you gotta finish the podcast. No, I got a thing to do. Sorry. I'm busy. Alrighty. Uh, that's your affordable project and good luck to.

[00:14:17] All right. So let's get into our topic here. Low volume projects and floors. Whew. What's the problem, George. the floor is lava. All right. The floors lava injury. It means it's gonna get, it's gonna a burned, right? It's a little. Well, well, metaphor here is that with low volume, I've had this thought of, you know, both on the rise up and the rise down, but you know, you, you watch the price sort of hit this peak in your, in your mind saying, oh, if only I had put a high price on it, it definitely would've sold when it hit the peak.

[00:14:50] The point is like, In and around there, like the amount of volume really is thinned out and in general has thinned out, which just means that you just need everyone to agree to a certain price and set the number there. But especially, I think when you reach that peak, you, your likelihood of being the like three things that sell at a peak at that floor being like when it gets up there is minuscule.

[00:15:11] So if it, if you're the type of player and I was until I really thought about. If you're the type of player who's like trying to time it. So I'm thinking about selling my, my flower fan thing. Like, oh, how, how can I perfectly time? The peak, the truth is only like a handful of people are going to get that sold at that floor when it reaches there.

[00:15:32] And then it's going to drop quite precipitously from wherever that is because the floor is lava because there is low volume. If there's only three people bidding on a thing being like, all right, I'm good. And. It doesn't matter what you set the number to. No, one's buying. Yeah. I mean, I think that's yeah, low volume.

[00:15:52] I mean, I think you just really can't trust the floor. I mean, if you it's almost, I mean, it's almost an indication that the floor is too high. If the volume isn't there, um, otherwise, you know, somebody would be buying it. It means generally speaking that the price is gonna have to come down before someone's ready to, to make the offer, uh, or to make the buy, um, you know, it's.

[00:16:13] Not always the case, but you know, I think you start seeing that to get the sale. You'll have people that will. List, maybe, you know, 20% under what the floor is because you need to make it somewhat attractive. And as we know, you know, once one person undercuts, uh, you know, you you'll get others doing it as well.

[00:16:30] And you know, this is really just a matter of there's more people wanting to sell than there are buyers out there at that time. And it's, you know, the prices can drop pretty quickly when that happens. I feel like there's a metric missing for. Some of my evaluations right now, which is like rolling 10 day volume sales, average, not volume.

[00:16:53] I don't like what I don't like is that we're handed volume as opposed to transactions. I wanna know average transactions trailing 10 day. And, you know, just to come like to, to put my money where my mouth is and my math should be, uh, for the Alpac Cadabra, I feel like I'm nailing it on pronunciation, by the way.

[00:17:15] Not bad. Your dad's. We have like, it, it fluctuates between like it's a range of a low of three and a high of, uh, a high of 12 trailing 10 day. So not huge, but there's movement. Right? There's a little bit of life there. Yeah, I think that's, I mean, I think that's a good, I don't know, potentially a good metric that they could add, but there's definitely, you know, looking at the total volume really, isn't a very good indicator of what's going on with the project.

[00:17:43] You know, as we know that there's a lot of projects that start hot and that's where, you know, 80% of the volume comes and then it's. It's slow after that. Um, so it's not great. I mean, and I get your point about even putting it in not necessarily volume, uh, but in the number of sales, you know, a high price project, obviously the volume is going to be much greater, but it doesn't mean that price is holding any steadier.

[00:18:06] It just means that it was a, you know, that it's higher prices than the lower price projects. Um, I think trying to look at the number of sales look at, you know, how it is recently, you know, it's, you know, right now when you're going on open sea anyway, Kind, I mean, to get that information, you're sort of just looking through the sales history, um, you know, these, their charts, aren't interactive.

[00:18:26] You can go and, and get information on this other places. And, you know, it's something that I do a lot, but, but yeah, I think you're, you're right in pointing out that it's the, the metrics aren't fully giving a full story of what's going on in the collection at this at any given time. Yeah. And it's exacerbated by volume.

[00:18:43] I, I don't know what, how to say high versus low. In terms of number of transactions, cuz it's, it's really thrown off by the power law of looking at what, you know, the top crypto slam, blah, blah blahs have, you know, like, oh, a number of transactions, you know, 58,000 on so rare. Or if you're looking at like right now, the duplicator drop right from doodles, we were talking about doodles the other day.

[00:19:05] I announced that at Ft NYC, like, you know, they're doing like, uh, 800, 800 transactions the past seven days. So. Those are it's different. I'm looking at projects that have just been quiet, right. Quiet for, for a bit. Um, but still have like a base level. Like we haven't completely forgotten about you kind of thing.

[00:19:26] Yeah. I mean, I, I think we've, you know, we've talked about that when looking at some of these projects right now, we wanna see that there's still some sales going during this time, you know, because if it's, if you got nothing right now, um, you know, it's gonna be hard to just have it come back because of a market turnaround.

[00:19:42] There's a lot of other projects that are taking attention. And as we know, that's a lot of what NFTs are. It's. You know, who can get the attention and it's hard to get it back if, uh, if people have moved on. Um, so I think you're right in saying like, where are people still paying attention? Where are people trying to scoop up some deals and look at that, you know, try to find, I got a fun game.

[00:20:00] I have a fun game. I just made up. All right, you're ready to play. You're gonna guess the seven day transaction amount for, for different projects I throw out to you. Right? So total transactions that have occurred over the past week. Are you ready? Max pain and friends. Ooh, how many transactions? Uh, man, I don't know.

[00:20:21] 30. All right. 62. I'm trying to build a little muscle for us. All right. So it's like they're, you know, kicking around close to 10 a day. Okay. So we get that type of project. Um, let me see another one for you. Um, going to go with.

[00:20:37] Oh, ACU guitars. What do you think? Number of transactions past seven days? Um, let's see, I'll go. I'll go with 50, according to this 96. Okay. I I've been about, uh, I've been about half the number on both these so far. Well, it's just intro. I'm trying to build our muscle here. Uh, alright. You wanna do one more?

[00:20:59] Sure. Let's do one more. you're like, why am I playing this game? What is, I'm gonna double whatever I think. And then I should wait, but then I'll I know you'll choose. All right. Alright. All right. Right. Let choose one that let choose one. That'll be good for your, okay. I feel like you have a good pulse on cool cats.

[00:21:24] What do you think? Ooh, you know, I don't, I don't have much of a pulse on that right now. Uh, I have not paid attention and I'm not sure how the pulse is there, but ah, let's see. Cool cats I'll go with, well, I'm gonna go with one 20. 1 43. You're getting better. Ah, all right. Getting better. all right. So there was a, I mean, look, there's a semi point to this game, but I think I want to build up that muscle and hopefully like you were playing while we were just having this conversation, but to try to understand, like, so we just said for the PAC Cadas.

[00:22:00] That we saw that many transactions going on for like, all right, they're doing about, you know, a range of call at seven a day. So you can begin to say like, where does this stack up? Like in terms of signs of life, because I don't like the metrics that were handed. And so I, I, I really wanna tune that a bit more to understand if the floor is lava.

[00:22:19] Yeah. You know, I'm thinking about it in some, almost like a, a, an inventory turnover type of, uh, metric, you know, you wanna see like how, you know, how big is the collection, how fast these pieces selling. Um, and I think that is more, more meaningful than just volume. Um, you know, we, we know that volume is, is, I don't know, pretty blunt, uh, measurement to be using for all these different collections.

[00:22:42] And it's , I don't think it really gives us much, much information overall. No. Here's the other thing with volume is that one rare piece sells for like 10 X the floor. And so you're like, oh my gosh, this project is ripping. And you're like, no, a whale came in and wanted the super rare piece in this collection.

[00:23:02] But that doesn't mean biscuits for the floor. Yeah, exactly. I mean, we, yeah, it, it, it, it's a vanity metric, really, I think at this point, and we've seen that people know how to game this. They also know that that is the ticket onto the leader boards and we've seen over and over again, that new projects come on, get hot, make it onto those leader boards.

[00:23:25] And then most cases, they just, the price just slowly fades after that. So, you know, volume is a, is a. It's one measurement that is being used way too widely right now. And it doesn't give you much information about how quickly can you actually sell your piece and how firm is the four? How, how realistic is this number and how much has it been tested, tested by the market?

[00:23:51] Absolutely. All right. That's what I got for you. That's all my, all my, my theme.

[00:23:56] All right. I think that's a good one. So, all right. As reminder up it comes. Yeah, go on discord. Go rate us on whatever app you happen to be listening to because, uh, you know, the more the merrier and maybe we can like start moving market on your new salon phone. You know, I assume there's some got their own podcasting app.

[00:24:18] I'm sure we talk. Hey look, I think we've had an open mind about. Solana and magic Eden and again, correlation or causation three, a talks about magic Eden magic Eden gets 130 million. I'm not saying we didn't not do that, but we should have found something for ourselves in there. we're terrible business people.

[00:24:43] really awful, which is why you should believe us or rating. The team, the team could use it. The team could use it. Yeah. all right. Stay safe out there.